Best Insider Traders


August 8th, 2009 value investor 7 comments Print Investment Article Print Investment Article Email Investment Article Email Investment Article

insider trading 200x200 Best Insider TradersI am willing to concede that company insiders know more about their businesses than I could ever learn about it by reading financial statements. This is why I use insider trading as part of my assessment critieria. The fact that all company insiders are not created equal should come as no surprise- who would you trust to know more about a business, the chief accountant or the janitor?

So what are the best job titles when it comes to insider trading? To give my analysis on this let me first set a few ground rules:

  • Analysis is done based on forms provided to the SEC (US data only then).
  • Analysis is done only against trades where the price on the form can be confirmed as a valid price for the day of the trade. This eliminates errors on the filing form the SEC missed.
  • Purchasers may have sold off stock, my analysis disregards these sales and assumes the investor still holds the stock. Investors sell stock for all sorts of reasons, but only ever buy them for one reason.
  • Derivative trades are disregarded as they are not always true unsolicited trades.
  • Analysis is only done against scale companies (companies that can be found on Yahoo or Google finance pages).

Defining A Good Insider

A good insider buys stock in a company when it is undervalued. The insider is proved to be right when the stock price rises consistently and only rarely decreases below its purchase price. We are able to analytically find this by using the following analysis criteria on the data:

  1. high number of unique individuals who meet the role. If there are only a few people who have the same job title it is not an accurate sample set.
  2. trades in every quarter from 2004 until present. A role that suddenly pops on the scene in the last quarter has an unfair advantage against those that have been trading consistently since 2004.
  3. high minimum return. Rule 1- don’t loose money, rule 2 read rule 1.
  4. high maximum return. We like to make some money too.

Results

Top 3 inside trader roles.

Role # of Insiders Min % increase Max % increase
MARKETING OFFICER 472 -1.30% 557.52%
SCIENTIFIC OFFICER 128 -1.81% 297.59%
CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER 3,053 -17.68% 73.03%

How to interpret the table

There are 472 individuals who have purchased stock between 2004 and now and have indicated that they are a “marketing officer” at their company. If you had bought the same stock as these individuals every time they purchased stock, and evaluated your portfolio at the end of every quarter between 2004 and now, your entire portfolio would have dipped 1.3% below its purchase price once, and would have risen to a maximum of 557.52% above its purchase price once.

Using This Data

Don’t treat all insider trades equally. There are a number of sites who can provide you the insider trades of the day, see my article for more on that here, or you can also watch for my posting on insider trading on my site, an example. As I say in my investment philosophy you should use this data as the start for your investigations, it can help you reduce the risks associated with investing.

 
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7 responses to “Best Insider Traders”

    edpin

    Great information. Thanks for that.

    What’s their mean and median returns? Max and min are not very informative. If the mean and median returns are below market, how good is following their lead?

    Cheers.

    EP


    value investor

    Hi,
    Initially I did think about adding the mean and median returns to my metrics. As you pointed out this would enable the ability to see if the portfolio would have risen consistently as compared to an index or if it had fluctuated all over the place. Did a role have one great quarter and the rest were low? After thinking about this some more though I concluded that it didn’t really matter to me, by having the best min and the best max we avoid the potential of loosing money and increase the potential of making money. Let me give an example: if one stock trades at a 0% increase from purchase price for 4 quarters and then suddenly goes to 100% of purchase price to me that is equal to a stock steadily increasing from 0 – 100% over the same period. As long as the stock doesn’t dip below 0%.
    But hey what do you think? Happy to provide the mean and median- let me know if you think I am completely wrong.


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