 It is very difficult to get a true gauge of the economy, the media is full of pundits and economists who create a dizzying amount of idle speculation. Getting down to brass tax is critical. When evaluating a business as a potential investment I often find myself in similar circumstances- too much information. To get past the noise I find the best thing to do is to focus on the fundamentals. In looking at the overall economy I think a similar approach can be taken.
The Vancouver port is one of the largest on the western sea board. If you are exporting odds are the product went through this port. If you are importing odds are it came through. If we want to evaluate the overall health of the economy looking how the inbound and how outbound shipments have varied is at the very least an interesting prospect and perhaps can also provide some insight into the overall health of the economy.
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Investing is done successfully by understanding direction, and velocity, not by looking at velocity alone. Velocity (in this simplified context) is the speed and distance a company achieves over time, this may be earnings, profit, sales or margin. Direction is which way the company is pointing, up or down, this speaks to a deep value assessment, or an understanding of the health of the overall business.
If you would like to profit from the stock market I would argue that you as an investor need to have a thorough understanding of each of these elements to truly estimate your risk in any given investment. Too often the analysis of companies is lopsided towards an appreciation of the sheer velocity with little regard to direction.
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